Nigerian Census Figures: True or False

Nigerian Census Figures: True or False


Fesowola O. V. Akintoye  mnis, rs, Member SCGIS, MSc GIS & Environment
Email: fesowola@glogeomaticsnigeria.com. 

The Nigerian census figures have been said to be inaccurate and in some cases inflated for economic and political reasons. National socio-economic and political statistics have been major issues of debate when matters relating to actual census figures come up. Census figures conflict with socio-economic realities across the country. Of interest are the arguments that exist on issues like more Muslims than Christians in the south than in the core north; and more Christians are perceived to be in northern Nigeria than in the south or that there are more women than men. These insinuations are worth probing and correcting. It could be true.

 

Census figures have not been realistic and supportive of government programmes and projects. For example Lagos landscape was bedeviled with refuse heaped up across the streets before the 2006 national population census when the population of Lagos was said to be about seven million. A parallel census carried out in 2006 by the state government revealed a population of about seventeen million against the federal government’s figure of twelve million for the same exercise. What it meant was that there was always on a monthly basis, a refuse backlog of ten million citizens unattended to with cumulative effects, not because there was no fund, but because of wrong or manipulated census information. Lagos state’s refuse disposal logistics for seventeen million people helped in effective planning and logistics which brought back the beauty and aquatic splendour of the center of excellence. 

 

The nation’s population figures for 2006 showed an average increase of 50%. For example Ogun and Ondo grew at a growth rate of about 53 - 56% over the same period (1991-2006). While it is logical to say that the influx of people from Lagos to Ogun could be responsible, as a lot of people live in Ogun state but work in Lagos, but one wonders what the reason or the driving force for the same percentage increase in Ondo state population can be attributed to.

 Mohamodu Buhari- President Elect

World over, population is higher along coast lines because of ease of communication and agricultural potentials and opportunities, but in Nigeria the reverse is the case. Population statistics reflect illogical figures in deep forests, deserts and un-inhabited coastal areas of the country.  It has similarly been said that social and economic laws don’t work in Nigeria. For example, one would expect a drop in price of essential products when more goods are in circulation in Nigeria, but the business sense in Nigeria is to create artificial scarcity. Population, market and essential services statistics are incorrect, distorted and generally insensitive to household conclusions. All statistics are generated to local government geographies beclouding the large scale analysis and generation of knowledge that could help underpin the intricacies of household level socio-economic   indicators that could be used for decision support and governance.

Bern Omo Akhigbe FNIS-  President, Nigerian Institution of Surveyors

Are the Nigerian census figures true or cooked? The fundamental issues about our national census data are weighty and deeper than mare visual assessments of records. It borders on the structures that are supposed to provide background knowledge for planning and logistics, effective population counting, statistical analysis and dissemination of potent information and knowledge. It is about the ease of use and the creation of packages logically directed at specific application areas for problem analysis, decision support and governance. The knowledge, to be useable must be sensitive to household scales. Advanced societies have learnt to carry out national statistical projects at household scales because of its sensitivity to revealing the indicators of poverty, affluence, unemployment, food, housing and transport shortages, educational needs and gaps. Aggregating information for the public at local government social scale could be intentionally aimed at covering up the actual figures that summed up to each local government census figures.

Census data on its own cannot reveal much without marrying it with other socio-economic and environmental variables and modelling their relationships across space which will provide resourceful and easy to use tools for decision support and governance. Nigeria needs to be mapped at a very large scale to manage the huge land area and ever increasing population as shown from current statistics. It requires making new large scale topographical map of the country, provide medium scale maps of natural resources to include areas like agriculture, geology, marine, conservation, wildlife, transport, physical plans etc.

Getting resource data to manage our country requires efforts at re-assessing and rebuilding the institutional arrangements, structures and capacities put in place for making and publishing our maps; assessments of our mapping needs using satellite imageries and existing small and medium scale maps as guide to make the work easier. It requires adequate and appropriate funding despite the global and local economic recessions. A well mapped country will be able to plan her activities, execute programmes and save money and time. Nations and cities with right knowledge to manage their territories are today called smart nations and cities. The gains from mapping are quite enormous and are both tangible and intangible. The resources to map Nigeria are available and must be annexed to usher in national resourcefulness, timely and cost effective projects and above all help us take stock of all that is included both in and within our space, our actions and relationships within the environment and finally provide basis for our collective future.